Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

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Delphi Team

Dr Fergus Bolger

Dr Fergus Bolger

Fergus Bolger (BA, Sussex, 1983; PhD, UCL 1988) is an experienced researcher in both experimental and applied social and cognitive psychology. He is well-versed with methods of statistical analysis and expert knowledge elicitation (EKE), and has taught research methods and statistics to undergraduates and postgraduates, as well as judgment and decision making and various aspects of psychology.

Fergus’s research interests include: the nature of expertise, EKE, decision support systems, uncertainty judgment, risk taking and perception, and judgmental forecasting. Research in these areas has resulted in more than 50 publications to date, receiving nearly 2000 citations.

From 1997 to 2013 Fergus held a number of academic positions alternating between Psychology departments and Business Schools in the UK (Leicester and Durham), Turkey (Bilkent University, Ankara), and the Netherlands (Erasmus University, Rotterdam). He currently works as an independent consultant in decision and policy making.

Gene Rowe

Dr Gene Rowe

Dr. Gene Rowe (BSc., PhD) is a cognitive/social psychologist, whose PhD (from Bristol Business School) concerned group forecasting processes, focusing on the Delphi technique. His subsequent work has ranged over a number of (related) topics from human judgment and decision making, to risk analysis/ management, to science communication and public engagement processes (in science and technology decision making) and the evaluation of these. Until 2010 – when he set up Gene Rowe Evaluations – he was Head of Consumer Science at the Institute of Food Research (Norwich, UK). As an independent research consultant he has gained funding from a range of national and international funding bodies, especially the European Union. His work on both ‘the evaluation of engagement’ and the ‘Delphi technique’ is well cited, and he has published around 100 peer reviewed articles and book chapters.

He recently completed his final term on the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council’s (BBSRC) Bioscience for Society Strategy Panel, and currently sits on the Research Councils’ UK (RCUK) Public Engagement in Research Advisory Panel (PERAP).

Prof George Wright

George is a psychologist who researches into the role and quality of management judgment in decision making and in anticipating the future. Are such judgments well-made or are there pitfalls and flaws? George has used a variety of experimental, questionnaire-based, and interview-analysis-based methodologies to investigate this issue. He has studied judgment and decision making within the psychological laboratory and within organisations He has found that sometimes judgment and decision making are flawed and decision aiding techniques – such as scenario thinking and decision analysis – can be utilised to improve judgment and decision making.

His recent interests have taken him away from laboratory-based studies into real-world interventions in organisations. When his interventions do not work out as anticipated, he diagnoses and then writes about the issues involved. On the basis of his research, George has also designed and delivered management development workshops on decision making, scenario thinking, and strategic analysis, for a variety of public and private sector organizations across the world.

He is currently working at directorate level within the UK Government Department of Health with scenario thinking and Delphi applications. George’s books include “Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, co-authored), “Decision Analysis for Management Judgment” (5th Edition, Wiley, 2014, co-authored), “Strategic Decision making: A best practice blueprint” (Wiley, 2001), and “The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios” (Wiley, 2002, co-authored). George is the Founding Editor of Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and Associate Editor of two forecasting Journals: International Journal of Forecasting and Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate editor of Decision Support Systems. His publications have appeared in a range of US-based management journals – including Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Risk Analysis, Management Science, and the Strategic Management Journal.

His publications have appeared within European management journals such as Organization Studies and Journal of Management Studies. The psychology journals that he has published in include British Journal of Psychology, Memory and Cognition, Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, Personality and Individual Differences, and Acta Psychologica.

He has edited special issues of Futures, International Journal of Forecasting, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change on the topics of Delphi methodology, scenario methodology, and group-based judgmental forecasting

Iain Hamlin

Iain completed his PhD in cues to deception at Lancaster University. His position (Research Associate) with the Delphi team on the BARD project is his seventh research position, following roles at Queen Margaret, Cardiff, Wolverhampton, Southampton, Edge Hill and Aberdeen Universities.

Megan Crawford

Megan is a PhD candidate in the department of Strategy & Organisation at the University of Strathclyde. Her background is in psychology, philosophy, and economics. Her research uses cognitive psychological paradigms to investigate the intuitive logics of futures-thinking methods. In particular, She is interested in where heuristic thinking is employed during the process, and how the resulting biases affect the process.

Alice McDonald

Alice Macdonald

Alice studied Psychology at the University of Aberdeen, graduating in 2013, and then graduated with a masters degree in Research Methods in Psychology from the University of Strathclyde in 2015. The areas of her research experience include educational psychology, learning and education, and emotions. She previously worked as a researcher in a local authority environment at Glasgow Caledonian University.

Ian Belton

Ian Belton is a Research Associate in the Department of Strategy & Organisation at the University of Strathclyde. He is currently finalising his PhD at Middlesex University, which relates to judgment and decision making in the criminal justice domain. Prior to his current role, Ian worked on various UK government-funded projects aimed at improving decision-making amongst intelligence analysts.

Sharon Locke

Sharon Locke

Sharon has worked at the University of Strathclyde for around 15 years. Sharon currently has two roles at the Business School splitting her time 50/50 between being a Postgraduate Programme Administrator and her newer role of Project Administrator for the BARD project.

Aileen Sissons

Aileen is a Research Assistant in the Department of Strategy & Organisation at the University of Strathclyde. She recently completed her MSc in Health Psychology at the University of Stirling, following her BSc (Hons) in Psychology. Her research interests are in the area of health and behaviour change, and previous research has explored interventions for unhealthy eating behaviours and physical activity.

Alexandrina Vasilichi

The BARD project is funded by IARPA’s CREATE Program