Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

Prof George Wright

George is a psychologist who researches into the role and quality of management judgment in decision making and in anticipating the future. Are such judgments well-made or are there pitfalls and flaws? George has used a variety of experimental, questionnaire-based, and interview-analysis-based methodologies to investigate this issue. He has studied judgment and decision making within the psychological laboratory and within organisations He has found that sometimes judgment and decision making are flawed and decision aiding techniques – such as scenario thinking and decision analysis – can be utilised to improve judgment and decision making.

His recent interests have taken him away from laboratory-based studies into real-world interventions in organisations. When his interventions do not work out as anticipated, he diagnoses and then writes about the issues involved. On the basis of his research, George has also designed and delivered management development workshops on decision making, scenario thinking, and strategic analysis, for a variety of public and private sector organizations across the world.

He is currently working at directorate level within the UK Government Department of Health with scenario thinking and Delphi applications. George’s books include “Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, co-authored), “Decision Analysis for Management Judgment” (5th Edition, Wiley, 2014, co-authored), “Strategic Decision making: A best practice blueprint” (Wiley, 2001), and “The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios” (Wiley, 2002, co-authored). George is the Founding Editor of Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and Associate Editor of two forecasting Journals: International Journal of Forecasting and Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate editor of Decision Support Systems. His publications have appeared in a range of US-based management journals – including Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Risk Analysis, Management Science, and the Strategic Management Journal.

His publications have appeared within European management journals such as Organization Studies and Journal of Management Studies. The psychology journals that he has published in include British Journal of Psychology, Memory and Cognition, Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, Personality and Individual Differences, and Acta Psychologica.

He has edited special issues of Futures, International Journal of Forecasting, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change on the topics of Delphi methodology, scenario methodology, and group-based judgmental forecasting

    The BARD project is funded by IARPA’s CREATE Program