Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

Nicole Cruz De Echeverria Loebell

Nicole is a postdoctoral research fellow, supervised by Ulrike Hahn, within the Elicitation team and is situated at Birkbeck, University of London.

Nicole is completing a PhD thesis which investigates reasoning with uncertain information. In particular, Nicole is investigating when and why people’s reasoning becomes inconsistent, in the sense of departing from the axioms of probability theory, and what factors might lead people to reason in a more consistent way. Nicole aims to investigate these questions through experiments and through Bayesian computational modelling. Nicole is also interested in the extent to which it makes a difference for people whether an inference is inductive or deductive, and in people’s understanding of statements with “if”, “all”, “or”, and “and” (e. g. “if that bird eats flax seeds, then it eats sesame seeds” vs. “all birds that eat flax seeds eat sesame seeds”).

    The BARD project is funded by IARPA’s CREATE Program