Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

Marko Tesic

I am a Ph.D. student in Psychology at the Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck, University of London (principal supervisor: Ulrike Hahn; second supervisor: David Lagnado). Previously, I have received a B.A. degree in Philosophy from the University of Belgrade, Serbia and an M.A. degree in Logic and Philosophy of Science from the Munich Centre for Mathematical Philosophy, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany.

As a part of BARD’s translation team, I am working on probabilistic and causal reasoning. In particular, I am currently interested in how people reason in situations in which two independent causes compete to account for an effect that both could have produced. Experimentally testing how both individuals and groups reason in these kinds of situations should lead to a better understanding of the reasoning processes involved, which in turn could suggests ways to improve people’s reasoning. I also maintain an interest in philosophy of science and argumentation and reasoning, as well as in building and exploring agent-based models of opinion dynamics.

    The BARD project is funded by IARPA’s CREATE Program