Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

Dr Fergus Bolger

Dr Fergus Bolger

Fergus Bolger (BA, Sussex, 1983; PhD, UCL 1988) is an experienced researcher in both experimental and applied social and cognitive psychology. He is well-versed with methods of statistical analysis and expert knowledge elicitation (EKE), and has taught research methods and statistics to undergraduates and postgraduates, as well as judgment and decision making and various aspects of psychology.

Fergus’s research interests include: the nature of expertise, EKE, decision support systems, uncertainty judgment, risk taking and perception, and judgmental forecasting. Research in these areas has resulted in more than 50 publications to date, receiving nearly 2000 citations.

From 1997 to 2013 Fergus held a number of academic positions alternating between Psychology departments and Business Schools in the UK (Leicester and Durham), Turkey (Bilkent University, Ankara), and the Netherlands (Erasmus University, Rotterdam). He currently works as an independent consultant in decision and policy making.

    The BARD project is funded by IARPA’s CREATE Program