Bayesian Argumentation via Delphi

Bayesian Reasoning For Better Thinking

Bayesian network researchers at Monash University are being supported by IARPA to adapt Bayesian net technology — widely applied in data mining and artificial intelligence — to improve intelligence analysts. This multi-year funded project uses Bayes’ theorem, an 18th century statistical rule, to update the probabilities of competing hypotheses given new evidence.


Advice for Disneyland

1.CHOOSE A WEEKDAY AWAY FROM SCHOOL HOLIDAYS For a successful day at Disneyland Paris, Disneyland Paris* rates are based on the time spent in the park.

SUPER MAGIC * tickets allow you to access the park(s) on any day of the year, depending on the number of parks you want to visit on a day, the rates vary between 60 and 85€.

MAGIC * tickets allow you to access the park(s) on weekends and during school holidays (except Halloween and Christmas), only. The prices of these tickets vary between 52 and 75€.

MINI tickets allow you to access the park(s) during the week and during the last weekends of January only. To get them, you will pay between 40€ and 65€.

So we can do the math quickly, to pay for the tickets in the expensive months, it is better to visit the park on a weekend in January (except the first) or a weekday the rest of the year.

The exact prices are available here :

  1. Buy your tickets from your works council or friends If you benefit from a works council through your employer, check with him / her if he / she puts at your disposal entrance tickets to Disneyland Paris ; or the possibilities to buy tickets through another intermediary (ticketnet etc...) at a reduced price…

If you have a works council but it does not offer this type of Service, submit the idea to them. The works councils, especially the smaller ones, are always happy to receive new ideas from the employees.

And if you don't have a works council, maybe someone around you has one. So do not hesitate to ask questions around will surely have good surprises…

  1. USE YOUR VACATION CHEQUES If you have holiday vouchers, know that you can use them to buy tickets to Disneyland Paris. Don't forget this option that can be significantly interesting…

  2. USE YOUR CHEQUES AND GIFT CARDS Christmas dinner vouchers in my “Christmas gift vouchers“ and “Christmas meal vouchers“ articles I was telling you to combine your cheques and gift cards received throughout the year and use them for the holidays.

Many of them can be used to purchase tickets directly from the park or from different ticket offices. Here too, by using them, you will significantly reduce the purchase cost.

  1. BUY A GIFT CARD AT DISCOUNTED PRICES ON SITE Don't you have any checks or gift cards ?

You can always buy them at discounted prices on card resale sites such as Cardplaces.

On-site cards you will also find directly, gift cards Disneyland Paris that you can use to buy your tickets to the park.

  1. BUY TICKETS DURING PRIVATE SALES Tickets or stays at Disneyland Paris are regularly offered at very low prices on private sale or Showrocomprived.

Be sure to check the site regularly or create an alert to receive an email at the next sale.

  1. BUY TICKETS DURING PROMOTIONS On the website of the park, you can register under the heading “receive our news and offers". You'll be the first to know about upcoming promotions.

The supermarket ticket offices (Carrefour Spectacles, Auchan ticket office...) also offer regular promotions on amusement parks, so they are to be watched !

For a successful day at Disneyland ParisPin this image on Pinterest DO NOT NEGLECT PREPARATION ! Full of stars in your eyes when you think about going to Disneyland for a day, you often forget to take time to prepare for that day.…

As enchanting as it is, there are many miles to walk, attractions to visit without forgetting to eat etc...

And the day is gone !

Taking some time to prepare your day at Disneyland Paris helps avoid waste of time on site and stress situations…

  1. TAKING STOCK WITH THE PARTICIPANTS ON THE ATTRACTIONS TO DO For a successful day at Disneyland Paris the needs and desires are different depending on the people, children and adults, who will participate with you in this wonderful day.

Do a little “Tour de table " all together to check out which attractions each “absolutely” wants to do and which ones would be secondary.

Take the time also to explain that a day has passed quickly, that there are sometimes long waiting times and that perhaps not all wishes can be fulfilled…

This way you will avoid a few crises....

Making a list of attractions to which you must participate "without mistakes" will also allow you to move on to the following tip…

  1. THINK ABOUT WHAT TO DO DURING YOUR DAY AT DISNEYLAND PARIS Once this list of priorities is established, you can study the map of the park and the location of attractions in the park.

You can also take the opportunity to locate the attractions that might be under construction and therefore not available, as well as the Times of the parades and shows !

  1. WATCH THE WEATHER Important ! Depending on the season you are going to “Chez Mickey”, you will need to equip yourself with a windbreaker, a hat and glasses or a big duvet.

Don't underestimate the cold ! The park is exposed to the wind and temperatures drop quickly…

Don't forget to check the weather !

  1. WEARING COMFORTABLE CLOTHES Whether you're going to Disneyland in winter or summer, in addition to casual clothing, dress comfortably !

Walking shoes, in which you will feel comfortable even after several kilometers of walking..

A top type waistcoat or zip sweater rather than a tight sweater, difficult to remove if needed and especially a good backpack…

  1. The INDISPENSABLE backpack Spend a whole day with your arms full of a handbag, an umbrella, things and things will be painful.

Bring yourself a good backpack (per person it is better for weight distribution) in which you will place a bottle of water, can store a sweater or umbrella, souvenirs later and possibly a pic-nic.

For a successful day at Disneyland ParisPin this image on Pinterest ARTICULATION of a day in DISNEY… Now that you know what attractions you're going to make, here are some tips for a smooth running…

  1. Arrive 30 MINUTES before the opening of the park For a successful day at Disneyland the opening time announced by the park is actually the opening time of the attractions.

The gates actually open half an hour before, so by arriving early enough, you will be well positioned to be among the first in the park.

You will thus avoid a huge queue time to make your first attractions.

  1. BUY YOUR TICKETS SIDE " DISNEY STUDIOS” If you didn't buy your tickets in advance, to avoid long queues at the ticket offices, buy your tickets at Disney Studios. There are usually fewer people on this side !

  2. Bring the PLAN and program to the park entrance For a successful day at Disneyland Paris from the entrance of the park, bring the plan and program. These 2 documents will be indispensable to you all day long.

  3. Using the DISNEYLAND PARIS app Better than the map and the program: the application of the park !

In addition to a map and the Times of the parades and shows, you can then know the waiting times “live” for each attraction.

  1. CHOOSE THE " BIG ATTRACTION” AT THE BEGINNING OR END OF THE DAY For a successful day at Disneyland as I told you above, arriving among the first you will avoid a part of the crowd.

Take the opportunity to go directly to the most popular attraction.

And if not, by the end of the day, a good part of the visitors begin to return home. Queues for the busiest attractions are therefore less busy…

  1. TRAVEL THE WORLD PARK You have well prepared your course, and have made your observations on a map or the application Disneyland Paris.

Now sort the attractions to be done according to the worlds to be traveled. Then travel the worlds one after another. You will thus avoid wasting time in "transfers" between attractions…

  1. DOING THE ATTRACTIONS DURING THE PARADES If you know parades by heart or are simply not interested, take advantage of this time to make attractions.

A good portion of the visitors will go to the parade area and you will be able to spend less time in the queue…

  1. USING FASTPASS For a successful day at Disneyland Parisin recent years, the park has been offering visitors a Fast Pass system.

It allows you to take a ticket to one of the attractions that offer this system and to return later,to a specific niche. You will then use a “cut-line " queue and your wait time will be greatly reduced or cancelled.

I advise you to use it as much as possible, you will make more attractions.

  1. EATING OUT OF TIME Everyone eats between 12: 00 and 1: 30 on average. By rescheduling your meal (lunch at 11.30 am or from 2pm) you will avoid the queues of restaurants.

You can also wait less at the attractions since everyone will be gone to eat…

  1. PICNIC in the summer and RESTAURANT in the winter

  2. AVOID RESTAURANTS " AT THE TABLE” For a successful day at Disneyland ParisElles are all very nice restaurant rooms at Mickey Mouse !

The only problem is that this mode of restoration will waste you a lot of time…

Unless you are staying for a stay, I suggest you go to the “fast food " box for meals.

  1. EATING AT THE VIDEOPOLIS This showroom located in Discovery Land regularly offers shows. You will also find one of the park's fast-food establishments.

It's one of the places I prefer to have lunch. In winter, you can have lunch while watching a show !

  1. USE HOLIDAY VOUCHERS TO PAY FOR MEALS If you still have holiday vouchers, be aware that you can pay all or part of your bill at the restaurant with…

  2. ASK FOR "PEE BREAKS"” For a successful day at Disneyland Paris you have to think about it but what do you prefer ?

Take a break by walking quietly in front of a toilet ?

Or get out of a queue you've been in for 30 minutes, because your child pleats in two by making you understand that you shouldn't hang around... then run, not knowing or giving yourself up, knowing that in addition you'll have to line up after...?

I chose !

  1. USE THE SERVICE " BABYSWITCH” This service allows you to line up for an attraction while the gentleman waits for you with baby at the exit. He can in turn make the attraction, without redoing the queue, when you have finished and taken over…

  2. USE THE SERVICE “SINGLE RIDER” The single rider service allows singles to reduce their waiting time at attractions. By agreeing to board alone in an attraction or next to an unknown person, you will have access to a special entrance and will be able to pass faster.

  3. SHOPPING FOR SOUVENIRS AT THE END OF THE DAY For a successful day at Disneyland ParisA what's the point of loading the arms of packets to be carried around all day.

After the show you will have plenty of time to shop and choose your souvenirs on Main Street.

And you'll waste less time during the day…

  1. SHOPPING DURING THE SHOW Have you enjoyed the attractions and are not particularly excited about the end-of-day show?

No problem, it's time to go back and get out of the park avoiding massive departures or shopping. While everyone has their noses in the air, you can stroll around the shops very easily.